Define the denominator
Start with a geography, business model and industry definition. Explain what is included and excluded, and whether the count represents businesses, establishments, franchise brands or physical sites. A five-location brand is not automatically five independent acquisition opportunities.
Keep local customer demand, supply density and the buyer’s ability to operate in the region as different questions. Combining them too early produces a single score with no clear interpretation.
Give each source a specific job
Census County Business Patterns supplies aggregate establishment, employment and payroll context. BLS QCEW supplies industry and geographic labor information. Neither is an individual company’s P&L. Directory metadata can supplement a company’s published footprint, but it may be incomplete or stale.
The CBP API documentation now requires a key for requests. Store the dataset vintage, release date and geography alongside results. A page checked in 2026 may describe an older observation year. Suppression and missing categories remain missing—not zero.
Make the map show uncertainty
For each sector-geography cell, record observed supply, source coverage, operating questions, direct competitors, evidence of customer demand and available relationship paths. Leave profitability, ownership structure and seller intent blank unless actual sources establish them.
An apparently sparse market may represent unmet demand, poor classification, unavailable data or economics that discourage entry. Those explanations imply different tests. Do not label a data gap an opportunity before distinguishing them.
Choose the next field test
Our recommended output is a ranked research agenda: which subcategory, why it fits the buyer, what contradicts the thesis, which operator or intermediary could clarify it, and which evidence would stop the search. Save a short decision memo with the source snapshot so new data can change the recommendation rather than overwrite history.
- U.S. Census Bureau · County Business Patterns API ↗Aggregate establishment/employment/payroll context; key required. Preserve data vintage, not website update date. Checked 2026-09-15.
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages ↗Aggregate industry/geographic labor context; not individual target finances. Checked 2026-09-15.